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9月CPI 5.4% , 大鲍鱼still 认为是transitory inflation
[版面:股海弄潮][首篇作者:awaydream] , 2021年10月13日10:44:43 ,601次阅读,7次回复
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发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标  题: 9月CPI 5.4% , 大鲍鱼still 认为是transitory inflation
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 13 10:44:43 2021, 美东)

不过,Fed地区chair里已经出现叛徒, 公然嘲笑transitory inflation的说法。

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida echoed that view in remarks Tuesday.

“The unwelcome surge in inflation this year, once these relative price
adjustments are complete and bottlenecks have unclogged, will in the end
prove to be largely transitory,” he said.

Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, joked Tuesday in
separate remarks that “transitory” is now seen as the equivalent of a
curse word at the Atlanta Fed. Bostic said that the price spikes mostly
reflect the pandemic’s impact on supply chains and added they should
eventually fade, but it will likely take longer than many Fed officials
initially expected.

October 13, 2021
10:26 AM EDT
Last Updated 9 minutes ago
Macro Matters
Food, rents boost U.S. consumer inflation in September


Consumer price index increases 0.4% in September
Food, rents account for more than half of the rise
Core CPI gains 0.2%; increases 4.0% year-on-year
WASHINGTON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices increased solidly in
September as Americans paid more for food, rent and a range of other goods,
putting pressure on the Biden administration to urgently resolve strained
supply chains, which are hampering economic growth.

With prices likely to rise further in the months ahead following a recent
surge in the costs of energy products, the report from the Labor Department
on Wednesday could test Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's repeated
assertion that high inflation is transitory. Powell and the White House have
blamed supply chain bottlenecks for the high inflation.

Supply chains have been gummed up by robust demand as economies emerge from
the COVID-19 pandemic. The coronavirus has caused a global shortage of
workers needed to produce raw materials and move goods from factories to

"Today's number, with food price inflation and shelter inflation moving
higher, suggests growing pressure on consumers," said Seema Shah, chief
strategist at Principal Global Investors. "Keep in mind too that the recent
rise in oil prices hasn't yet fed through to the numbers – that's still to
come, while the renewed rise in car prices is also likely to drive inflation
numbers higher in the coming months."

Report ad
The consumer price index rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in August.
Food prices jumped 0.9% after increasing 0.4% in the prior month. Owners'
equivalent rent of primary residence, which is what a homeowner would
receive from renting a home, increased 0.4% after gaining 0.3% in August.

Food and rents accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI in
September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the overall CPI would
rise 0.3%.

In the 12 months through September, the CPI increased 5.4% after advancing 5
.3% on a year-on-year basis in August.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI climbed 0.2%
after edging up 0.1% in August, the smallest gain in six months. In addition
to rents, the co-called core CPI was lifted by a 1.3% increase in the cost
of new motor vehicles, which marked the fifth straight month of gains above

Report ad
A global semiconductor shortage has forced auto manufacturers to cut
production. There were also increases in the prices of household furnishings
and operations last month. Consumers also paid more for motor vehicle

But prices for airline fares and apparel as well as used cars and trucks all
fell. The so-called core CPI rose 4.0% on a year-on-year basis last month,
matching the gain in August.


Oil prices jumped on Monday to the highest levels in years amid a rebound in
global demand after the pandemic. Though Brent crude futures fell on
Wednesday, prices remained above $80 a barrel. Natural gas prices have also

Report ad
Expensive energy products would add to accelerating wage growth in exerting
upward pressure on inflation. The government reported last week that average
hourly earnings increased by the most in seven months on a year-on-year
basis in September because of worker shortages.

With the number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs hitting a record
high in August and at least 10.4 million unfilled positions, wage inflation
is set to rise further.

"The right place to look for inflation is not just in the so-called
inflation data itself, but also in the tighter labor market and associated
wage growth," said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief U.S. economist at Citigroup in
New York.

"Firms confident of passing on input costs may make higher energy prices a
driver of broader inflation."

September's CPI report will have no impact on the Fed's timeline to begin
scaling back its massive monthly bond-buying program. The U.S. central bank
signaled last month that it could start tapering its asset purchases as soon
as November.

Economists expect that announcement will come at the Nov. 2-3 policy meeting.

"The central bank has already said that inflation has met the threshold for
tapering, it's the job market that hasn't," said Ryan Sweet, a senior
economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "The CPI could
garner a reaction in the bond market as it could alter market expectations
for the timing of the first rate hike by the Fed, which in our opinion, is
still far off on the horizon."

The Fed's preferred inflation measure for its flexible 2% target, the core
personal consumption expenditures price index, increased 3.6% in the 12
months through August, rising by the same margin for a third straight month.
September's data will be published later this month.

The Fed last month upgraded its core PCE inflation projection for this year
to 3.7% from 3.0% in June.

Despite strong wage gains, high inflation is cutting into consumers'
purchasing power.

That, together with motor vehicle shortages, led economists to cut their
gross domestic product estimates for the third quarter to as low as a 1.3%
annualized rate from as high as a 7% pace. The International Monetary Fund
on Tuesday slashed its 2021 U.S. growth forecast by a full percentage point,
to 6.0% from 7.0% in July. read more
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发信人: Yellen (回归财长:印钱加负利率), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 9月CPI 5.4% , 大鲍鱼still 认为是transitory inflation
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 13 11:03:42 2021, 美东)

※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 网址:mitbbs.com 移动:在应用商店搜索未名空间·[FROM: 2600:1700:9a61:]

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发信人: awaydream (昆仑天下), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 9月CPI 5.4% , 大鲍鱼still 认为是transitory inflation
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 13 11:08:05 2021, 美东)


美国暴涨一波的房价(20%)才刚刚通过房租涨价kick in而已,
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发信人: niuheliang (别问我是谁), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 9月CPI 5.4% , 大鲍鱼still 认为是transitory inflation
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 13 11:11:35 2021, 美东)


【 在 awaydream (昆仑天下) 的大作中提到: 】
: 只有傻逼才会买他的1.x%的
: 国债。



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发信人: hmvhmv (hmvhmv), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 9月CPI 5.4% , 大鲍鱼still 认为是transitory inflation
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 13 12:07:14 2021, 美东)

天天喊transitory, 总有一天不transitory
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发信人: daemonself (), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 9月CPI 5.4% , 大鲍鱼still 认为是transitory inflation
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 13 12:11:52 2021, 美东)

【 在 niuheliang (别问我是谁) 的大作中提到: 】
: 傻逼们为啥不买黄金

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发信人: Volvo12 (胖头熊), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 9月CPI 5.4% , 大鲍鱼still 认为是transitory inflation
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 13 12:20:59 2021, 美东)

咬死transitory inflation,是为了不涨利率。否则必须大涨利率,股市崩盘。

你是假假地相信transitory inflation,不涨利率,让股市继续红火。还是大涨利率,
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发信人: Volvo12 (胖头熊), 信区: Stock
标  题: Re: 9月CPI 5.4% , 大鲍鱼still 认为是transitory inflation
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 13 12:21:32 2021, 美东)

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